Working Papers 2010-2024

24.06Sylvia Kaufmann and Markus PapeA geometric approach to factor model identification
24.05Fabienne SchneiderOn-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access
24.04Fabienne Schneider, Remo TaudienCredit and Anonymity
24.03Gabriele Camera, Rodney Garratt and Cyril MonnetTruth by Consensus: A Theoretical and Empirical 
Investigation
24.02Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney W. StrachanDynamic factor models with common (drifting) stochastic trends
24.01Nils HergerA Runs Test for Stock-Market Prices with an Unobserved Trend
23.04Sylvia Kaufmann and Markus PapeBayesian (non-)unique sparse factor modelling
23.03Martin Brown, Jan Schmitz and Christian ZehnderMoral Constraints, Social Norm Enforcement and Strategic Default in Weak and Strong Economic Conditions
23.02Martin Brown, Jan Schmitz and Christian ZehnderCommunication and Hidden Action: A Credit Market Experiment
23.01Piero Gottardi, Vincent Maurin and Cyril MonnetFragility of Secured Credit Chains
22.04Lucas Fuhrer and Nils HergerReal interest rates and population growth across generations
22.03Cyril Monnet and Todd KeisterCentral Bank Digital Currency: Stability and Information
22.02RSylvia KaufmannCovid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting.
22.02Sylvia KaufmannCovid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting.
22.01Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltThe Political Economy of Early COVID-19 Interventions in US States
21.01Raphael Auer, Cyril Monnet and Hyun Song ShinDistributed Ledgers and the Governance of Money
20.06Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltOptimally Controlling an Epidemic
20.05Dirk NiepeltMonetary Policy with Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence, and Politics
20.04Toni Beutler, Matthias Gubler, Simona Hauri and Sylvia KaufmannBank lending in Switzerland: Capturing cross-sectional heterogeneity and asymmetry over time 
20.03Sylvia KaufmannCovid-19 outbreak and beyond: The information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now and forecasting
20.02Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltTractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis
20.01Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltOn the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic
19.06Nils HergerUnregulated and regulated free banking. The case of Switzerland reinterpreted
19.05Markus K. Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money
19.04Chao Gu, Cyril Monnet, Ed Nosal and Randall WrightOn the Instability of Banking and Other Financial Intermediation 
19.03Simon BeyelerStreamlining Time-varying VAR with a Factor Structure in the Parameters
19.02Maria Bolboaca and Sarah FischerUnraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence
19.01Maria Bolboaca and Sarah FischerNews Shocks: Different Effects in Boom and Recession?
18.03Stephan Imhof, Cyril Monnet and Shengxing ZhangThe Risk-Taking Channel of Liquidity Regulations and Monetary Policy
18.02Dirk NiepeltReserves for All? Central Bank Digital Currency, Deposits, and their (Non)-Equivalence
18.01Nicole AreggerAsset Prices under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes
17.04Nils HergerTesting the interest parity condition with Irving Fisher’s example of Indian rupee and sterlingbonds in the London financial market (1869-1906).
17.03Nicole Aregger and Jessica LeutertUnconventional Monetary Policy under Appreciation Pressure -The Role of Financial Frictions
17.02Nicole Aregger and Jessica LeutertPolicy Evaluation by the Synthetic Control Approach: The Case of the Swiss Franc
17.01Nils HergerAn empirical assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy
16.08RSimon Beyeler and Sylvia KaufmannFactor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach
16.08Simon Beyeler and Sylvia KaufmannFactor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach
16.07Adrien Alvero and Andreas M. FischerExchange rate floor and central bank balance sheets: Simple spillover tests of the Swiss franc
16.06Sylvia KaufmannHidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics
16.05Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltFiscal Federalism, Taxation and Grants
16.04Pinar YesinCapital Flows and the Swiss Franc
16.03Pinar YesinExchange Rate Predictability and State-of-the-Art Models
16.02Gregor Bäurle, Daniel Kaufmann,
Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney W. Strachan
Changing dynamics at the zero lower bound
16.01Alin Marius Andries, Andreas M. Fischer and Pinar YesinThe impact of international swap lines on stock returns of banks in emerging markets
15.05Toni Beutler, Robert Bichsel, Adrian Bruhin and Jayson DantonThe Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending
15.04Nils HergerAn uncovered interest parity condition that worked – The continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the gold standard (1880 -1914).
15.03Raphael A. AuerHuman Capital and the Dynamic Effects of Trade
15.02Pinar YesinCapital flow waves to and from Switzerland before and after the financial crisis
15.01Raphael A. AuerExchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi
14.07Harris Dellas and Dirk NiepeltAusterity
14.06Romain BaeriswylIntertemporal discoordination in the 100 percent reserve banking system
14.05Raphael A. Auer and Aaron MehrotraTrade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific
14.04Sylvia KaufmannK-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?
14.03Paul Gaggl and Sylvia KaufmannThe Cyclical Component of Labor MarketPolarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US
14.02Nils Herger and Steve McCorristonHorizontal, Vertical, and Conglomerate FDI: Evidence from Cross Border Acquisitions
14.01Philipp Harms, Jaewon Jung and Oliver LorzOffshoring and Sequential Production Chains: A General-Equilibrium Analysis
13.08Nils HergerMarket Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices
13.07Irineu de Carvalho FilhoRisk-off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: the Role of Capital Flows
13.06Pinar YesinForeign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe
13.05Harris Dellas and Dirk NiepeltCredibility For Sale
13.04Sylvia Kaufmann and Christian SchuhmacherBayesian Estimation of Sparse Dynamic Factor Models with Order-Independent Identification
13.03Raphael A. AuerWhat Drives Target2 Balances? Evidence From a Panel Analysis
13.02Nils HergerOn Discrete Location Choice Models
13.01Raphael A. AuerProduct Heterogeneity, Cross-Country Taste Differences, and the Consumption Home Bias
12.03Toni BeutlerForecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Convenience Yields
12.02Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltEconomic and Politico-Economic Equivalence
12.01Filippo Brutti and Philip SauréTransmission of Sovereign Risk in the Euro Crisis
11.11Toni Beutler and Mathieu GrobétyThe Collateral Channel under Imperfect Debt Enforcement
11.10Philipp Harms and Pierre-Guillaume MéonAn FDI is an FDI is an FDI? The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions in developing countries
11.09Yves OrtizPrices and Choices in the Swiss Health Care Insurance Market
11.08Yves Ortiz and Martin SchüleLimited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: A Probabilistic Multi-Agent Model
11.07Salvatore Dell’Erba and Dennis ReinhardtSurfing the Capital Waves: A sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows
11.06Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk NiepeltAgeing, Government Budgets, Retirement, and Growth
11.05Emanuel KohlscheenThe Journal Rankings of Central Banks
11.04Raphael Auer and Philip SauréSpatial Competition in Quality, Demand-Induced Innovation, and Schumpeterian Growth
11.03Raphael Auer and Philip SauréCHF Strength and Swiss Export Performance – Evidence and Outlook From a Disaggregate Analysis
11.02Raphael Auer, Kathrin Degen and Andreas M. FischerLow-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure, and Industry Dynamics in Europe
11.01Roland HodlerDevelopment (Paradigm) Failures
10.05Roland Hodler and Paul A. RaschkyForeign Aid and Enlightened Leaders
10.04Roland HodlerCompulsory Voting and Public Finance
10.03Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann and Christina OrtseiferThe Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs
10.02Dennis ReinhardtInto the Allocation Puzzle - A Sectoral Analysis
10.01Roland Hodler, Simon Loertscher and Dominic RohnerBiased Experts, Costly Lies, and Binary Decisions
 

Working Papers 2000-2009

09.06 Philipp Harms and Mathias Hoffmann Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt
09.05 Raphael Auer Product Heterogeneity, Within-Industry Trade Patterns, and the Home Bias of Consumption?
09.04 Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop and Toni Beutler Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?
09.03 Raphael Auer The Colonial and Geographic Origins of Comparative Development
09.02 Philipp Harms and Philipp an de Meulen The Demographics of Expropriation Risk
09.01 Philipp Harms, Oliver Lorz and Dieter Urban Offshoring Along the Production Chain
08.05 Dirk Niepelt Debt Maturity without Commitment
08.04 Nils Herger Explaining Bank Failures in the United States: The Role of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Systemic Risk, Banking Regulation, and Contagion
08.03 Gregor Bäurle and Tobias Menz Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Model: A DSGE-VAR Approach for Switzerland
08.02 Elmar Mertens Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion
08.01 Elmar Mertens Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?
07.05 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt Population Ageing, Government Budgets, and Productivity Growth in Politico-Economic Equilibrium
07.04 Oya Celasun and Philipp Harms How does private foreign borrowing affect the risk of sovereign default in developing countries?
07.03 Philipp Harms and Marco Kretschmann Words, Deeds, and Outcomes: A Survey on the Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes
07.02 Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt The Future of Social Security
07.01 Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle
06.04 Philippe Bacchetta, Elmar Mertens and Eric van Wincoop Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?
06.03 Assar Lindbeck and Dirk Niepelt The Stability Pact—Rationales, Problems, Alternatives
06.02  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta, Romain Ranciere and Kenneth Rogoff Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development
06.01  Pinar Yesin Financing Government Expenditures Optimally
05.05 Elmar Mertens Structural Shocks and the Comovements between Output and Interest Rates
05.04  Dirk Niepelt Starving the Beast? Intra-Generational Conflict and Balanced Budget Rules
05.03  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle
05.02 Marlene Amstad and Andreas M. Fischer Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Daily Panels
05.01  Andreas M. Fischer Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?
04.07  Dirk Niepelt Timing Tax Evasion
04.06  Marlene Amstad and Andreas M. Fischer Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment
04.05  Philipp Harms and Michael Rauber Foreign aid and developing countries’ creditworthiness
04.04  Andreas M. Fischer Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis using Central Bank Interventions
04.03  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing
04.02  Pinar Yesin Tax Collection Costs, Tax Evasion and Optimal Interest Rates
04.01  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
03.07  Samuel Reynard Optimal Cyclical Monetary Policy: Does Steady-State Inflation Matter?
03.06  Andreas M. Fischer On the Inadequacy of Newswire Reports for Empirical Research on Foreign Exchange Interventions
03.05  Bertrand Rime The New Basel Accord: Implications of the Co-existence between the Standardized Approach and the Internal Ratings-based Approach
03.04  Philipp Harms and Matthias Lutz Aid, Governance, and Private Foreign Investment: Some Puzzling Findings and a Possible Explanation
03.03 Ricarda Demarmels and Andreas M. Fischer Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run
03.02  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?
03.01  Michael J. Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance and Cyclical Nature of Improvements
02.08  Monique Ebell and Christian Haefke Product Market Deregulation and Labor Market Outcomes
02.07  Philipp Harms Deregulation and the current account
02.06  Philipp Harms and Stefan Zink Growing into and out of social conflict
02.05  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Why Do Consumer Prices react less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?
02.04  Robert Bichsel and Jürg Blum The Relationship Between Risk and Capital in Swiss Commercial Banks: A Panel Study
02.03 Andreas M. Fischer Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?
02.02  Ricarda Demamerls and Andreas M.Fischer Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Last Thirty Years
02.01  Dueker, Michael J., Andreas M. Fischer and Robert D. Dittmar Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity
01.07  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade
01.06  Urs W. Birchler and Andréa M. Maechler Do Depositors Discipline Swiss Banks?
01.05  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises
01.04  Don Morgan, Bertrand Rime and Philip Strahan Bank Integration and Business Volatility in the U.S.
01.03 Bertrand Rime and Kevin J. Stiroh The Performance of Universal Banks: Evidence from Switzerland
01.02  Michael Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for Emerging Markets
01.01  Monique C. Ebell Why Are Asset Returns More Volatile during Recessions? A Theoretical Explanation
00.14  Urs W. Birchler Are Banks Excessively Monitored?
00.13  Harris Dellas and Martin K. Hess Financial Development and Stock Market Performance
00.12  Nicolas A. Cuche Alternative Indicator of Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy
00.11  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Trade Flows, Prices, and The Exchange Rate Regime
00.10  Nicolas A. Cuche Monetary Policy with Forward-looking Rules: The Swiss Case
00.09  Andréa M. Maechler The Politics of Trade Liberalization in the Presence of FDI Incentives
00.08  Jürg Blum The Limits of Market Discipline in Reducing Banks' Risk Taking
00.07  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints
00.06  Harris Dellas and Martin K. Hess Financial Development and the Sensitivity of Stock Markets to External Influences
00.05  Bertrand Rime Bank Capital Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Switzerland
00.04  Andreas M. Fischer Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?
00.03  Philippe Bacchetta Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt
00.02  Dominik Egli and Bertrand Rime The UBS-SBC Merger and Competition in the Swiss Retail Banking Sector
00.01  Urs W. Birchler Bankruptcy Priority for Bank Deposits: a Contract Theoretic Explanation

Working Papers 1993-1999

99.04  Jeffrey H. Nilsen Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel
99.03  Jeffrey H. Nilsen and Riccardo Rovelli Modeling Financial Fragility in Transition Economies
99.02  Nicolas A. Cuche and Martin K. Hess Estimating Monthly GDP in a General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence from Switzerland
99.01  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies
98.03 Jeffrey H. Nilsen Why Did Czech Banks Switch From Loans in 1995?
98.02  Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta Philippe and Abhijit Banerjee Financial Liberalization and Volatility in Emerging Market Economies
98.01  Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility
97.01 Philippe Bacchetta and Stefan Gerlach Consumption and Credit Constraints: International Evidence
96.01 Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Trade in Nominal Assets and Net International Capital Flows
95.11 Philippe Bacchetta and María Paz Espinosa Exchange-of-information Clauses in International Tax Treaties
95.10 Philippe Bacchetta Exchange Rate Policy and Disinflation: The Spanish Experience in the ERM
95.09 Philippe Bacchetta and Ramon Caminal Do Capital Market Imperfections Exacerbate Output Fluctuations?
95.08 Philippe Bacchetta and Fernando Ballabriga The Impact of Monetary Policy and Bank Lending: Some International Evidence
95.07 Walter Wasserfallen American vs. European Option Pricing Models: Does it Really Matter?
95.06  Walter Wasserfallen and Christoph Schenk Portfolio Insurance for the Small Investor
95.05 Philippe Bacchetta Capital Controls and the Political Discount: The Spanish Experience in the Late 1980s
95.04 Walter Wasserfallen and Daniel Liechti The Hedging Performance of Swiss Interest Rate Futures
95.03 Philippe Bacchetta and Harris Dellas Firm Restructuring and the Optimal Speed of Trade Reform
95.02  Walter Wasserfallen Interest Rate Differentials and the Structure of Banks' Balance Sheets
95.01 René M. Stulz and Walter Wasserfallen Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization, Theory and Evidence
94.03 Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop Net Capital Flows under Exchange Rate and Price Volatility
94.02 Philippe Bacchetta and María Paz Espinosa Information Sharing and Tax Competition among Governments
94.01  Philippe Bacchetta Regional Investment and Growth in the European Community
93.03 Walter Wasserfallen and Christian Wittleder Pricing Initial Public Offerings, Evidence from Germany
93.02 Walter Wasserfallen and Guido Kürsteiner Money, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Short Run
93.01 Thomas Stucki and Walter Wasserfallen Stock and Option Markets: The Swiss Evidence